Sonali Tiwary
Isaias is no longer the tropical storm you read about earlier this week. If you live on the northern Gulf Coast, the question now is whether you are ready for landfall tonight.
What changed since the earlier forecast
Hurricane Isaias landfall is expected within the warning area this evening, according to the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 1 p.m. CDT advisory on October 9. The storm is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a central pressure of 959 millibars. Its center sits near 28.4N, 87.2W, about 145 miles south of Pensacola, Florida, and is moving north-northeast at 16 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Landfall is expected near the Florida-Alabama border.
If you are in the warning area, follow local evacuation and shelter instructions now. The NHC warns of life-threatening storm surge from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected over parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi. Heavy rain will spread across the central Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend.
Surge, rain and the forecast
The NHC's key messages list a life-threatening storm surge from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Reuters reported that Isaias could bring isolated rainfall totals of 10 inches across parts of the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida. The storm underwent rapid intensification, according to forecasters, and is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength at landfall.
Earlier draft claims about 9-12 foot surge, 6-10 inch rainfall, 4,500 mutual-aid linemen, Port Condition Yankee, a 45 mph rescue cutoff and a slowdown across two high-tide cycles were not verified against current advisories and have been removed.
When and where will Hurricane Isaias make landfall? The NHC expects landfall within the hurricane warning area this evening, with the center forecast to reach the western Florida Panhandle coast. Check the latest advisory for any shift in timing or track.
Check back for updates on landfall confirmation, inland flooding and power restoration.
Internal links: earlier Karmactive TS Isaias preparation article; Gulf Coast emergency kit/insurance article.
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