Govind Tekale
Which House seats moved, and are Democrats now favoured to win the majority? The Cook Political Report moved 18 House race ratings toward Democrats on 9 October 2026, less than four weeks before the 3 November election. Cook now says the most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats, which would put the party above the 218 needed for a majority.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, published the House race ratings changes on 9 October 2026. House editor Erin Covey wrote the analysis. Nine Republican incumbents saw their races move toward Democrats: Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn (Iowa); Ryan Mackenzie, Scott Perry and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania); Bill Huizenga (Michigan); Rob Wittman (Virginia); French Hill (Arkansas); and Victoria Spartz (Indiana). Five Democratic incumbents also improved: Susie Lee (Nevada), Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen (New York), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Washington) and Don Davis (North Carolina). Four open seats moved too: Nebraska’s 2nd, Iowa’s 2nd, Kentucky’s 6th and Maine’s 2nd.
A rating change is a forecast, not a result. Cook’s new range puts Democrats at 224 to 234 seats. Covey wrote: “At this point, Democrats only need to win 20 percent of the Toss Ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break their way.” Cook currently labels 21 House contests as Toss Up, 15 held by Republicans and six by Democrats. Voters in these districts are in races Cook rates as competitive.
What changed in each rating
In Iowa, Cook moved the 1st and 3rd Districts from Toss Up to Lean Democratic and the 2nd District to Toss Up, according to the Des Moines Register. Newsmax reports that four races in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, including Miller-Meeks’ rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan, and four others moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
Covey wrote about Kentucky’s open 6th District: “On paper, this open seat should be difficult for a Democrat to win. Trump carried the district by 15 points.” She added that polling from both parties shows Democratic prosecutor Zach Dembo and former Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado neck and neck.
Cook says its ratings reflect district characteristics, candidate strengths and weaknesses, the political environment, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella responded: “House races are won in the districts, one by one, with battle-tested candidates and messages that work.”
Which House races did the Cook Political Report shift to Democrats? The Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats: nine with Republican incumbents, five with Democratic incumbents and four open seats. They span Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Washington, Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky and Maine.
Cook’s full ratings tables list every district and its new rating. The election is on 3 November, and Cook’s ratings can change again before then. Check back for updates.
