If you develop renewable energy projects in a developing country, a new global pledge that sounds like climate progress could actually work against you. The COP31 host presidency’s new electrification target counts nuclear and fossil-generated electricity the same as solar and wind — and that’s drawing sharp criticism from climate campaigners.

Türkiye’s COP31 presidency unveiled a voluntary pledge this September committing signing governments to raising electricity’s share of total global energy consumption to 35% by 2035, in line with pathways aimed at keeping the 1.5°C goal alive. The International Energy Agency (IEA) published supporting analysis the same day, commissioned at the request of Türkiye and Australia, finding that reaching roughly 33% electrification is already cost-effective with existing technology, putting the 35% goal “within striking distance.” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said around 80% of new power plants built globally in 2026 run on renewables, with a small share from nuclear and the rest from fossil fuels. But the pledge text does not require governments to commit to generating that additional electricity from clean sources. The IEA’s broader electricity-system analysis continues to model how different generation mixes affect the target.

For renewable energy developers in developing nations, this means competing against nuclear and gas-fired power for the same “electrification” credit, rather than benefiting from a target that specifically rewards your own technology.

Janet Milongo, energy transition lead at CAN International, said success cannot be measured simply by how much of the world’s energy consumption becomes electric. “We must ask what generates that electricity, who has access to it, who owns the infrastructure, and whether it is helping communities transition away from fossil fuels,” she said. Claire Smith of the campaign group Beyond Fossil Fuels went further, warning that electrification must not become “the Trojan horse of our times,” used to hide new fossil fuel consumption rather than promote renewable energy. The IEA itself has acknowledged the pledge is not sufficient alone, stating electrification “by itself is not enough” to meet global climate targets, and that hitting the 35% goal in a way consistent with 1.5°C would require coal-fired generation to fall by around 70% and gas-fired generation by around 60% by 2035.

The pledge is a voluntary commitment governments can sign at COP31, proposed by the Turkish presidency to raise electricity’s share of final energy consumption to 35% by 2035. It is facing backlash because it does not require that additional electricity to come from renewable sources, and current policies alone would only reach about 30% by 2035.

The clean-power gap in the 35-by-35 pledge is likely to shape formal negotiating positions as COP31 approaches, with campaigners pushing to attach a renewables requirement before governments finalize their commitments.