Sunita Somvanshi
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has set out plans to adjust how the state pension increases from April 2030 — replacing the current triple lock mechanism with a modified system — and directing the fiscal savings toward a new National Care Service. A fresh YouGov poll shows nearly half of Britons back the plan when they're told what the money would fund.
What Burnham is proposing
The current triple lock guarantees the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest: wage growth, inflation, or 2.5%. From April 2030, Burnham's government proposes adjusting this to a system under which the state pension would increase by the higher of CPI inflation or 2.5%, with a separate mechanism to ensure the pension keeps pace with average earnings growth over time. This removes the possibility of the pension spiking directly from volatile short-term wage growth while retaining the 2.5% minimum floor and an earnings backstop.
The current triple lock arrangement will remain unchanged through the rest of this Parliament before the adjusted mechanism takes effect in 2030.
The government says savings from adjusting the triple lock are intended to fund the proposed National Care Service, which it says would provide free personal care based on need.
The YouGov polling
YouGov surveyed 4,503 GB adults on September 29 and found 48% support changing the triple lock to fund a National Care Service, with 28% opposed and 24% undecided. The margin holds up at net positive (+20) when the reform is explicitly framed as ring-fenced for social care — a framing that appears to transform the question from a pension reduction into a benefit trade-off.
Where the government stands
The government's official policy commits to maintaining the current triple lock unchanged until April 2030. From that point, the adjusted mechanism described above would take effect. The government estimates savings of around £15 billion a year by the end of the 2030s, though independent economists have noted that the actual savings are highly scenario-dependent and will vary with future inflation and wage growth conditions.
What it means for your pension
Your state pension payment will not change immediately. The government's official policy maintains the current triple lock through this Parliament. If the adjusted mechanism takes effect from April 2030, your annual increase would still track the higher of CPI inflation or 2.5%, with the earnings backstop ensuring the pension does not fall behind wages over the long term. The government says the proposed National Care Service would provide free personal care based on need.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Andy Burnham's proposal for the pension triple lock?
From April 2030, the government proposes replacing the triple lock with an adjusted system under which the state pension rises by the higher of CPI inflation or 2.5%, with a separate mechanism to keep pace with earnings over time. This removes the direct short-term wage-growth element while retaining the 2.5% floor. The government says the savings would fund a National Care Service providing free personal care based on need. A YouGov poll of 4,503 GB adults found 48% support the change, against 28% opposed.
Do Britons support changing the pension triple lock?
Support depends strongly on framing. YouGov's September 29, 2026 survey of 4,503 GB adults found 48% back adjusting the triple lock when the savings are explicitly ring-fenced for social care. 28% opposed.
What is the difference between the current triple lock and the proposed adjusted system?
The triple lock increases the state pension by the highest of wage growth, inflation, or 2.5%. The proposed adjusted system from April 2030 would increase by the higher of CPI inflation or 2.5%, with an earnings backstop over the longer term, removing the direct link to annual wage-growth figures while retaining the 2.5% minimum floor.
The Autumn Statement is the next milestone for this debate. Coverage will update when the government provides further fiscal detail.
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