Rahul Somvanshi
The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea has raised its catch advice for Northeast Atlantic mackerel in 2027 to 352,938 tonnes — more than double the 174,357-tonne figure it recommended for 2026. The increase reflects an improvement in stock biomass estimates and better recruitment data from recent surveys. But a 102% rise in scientific advice will not automatically translate into 102% more mackerel on shelves or at the quayside.
What ICES actually recommends, and what it does not
ICES publishes catch advice under a Maximum Sustainable Yield framework. The figure is a scientific recommendation, calculated to allow the stock to maintain itself while supporting commercial fishing. It is not a quota, a guaranteed allocation, or an agreement.
The actual fishing opportunities for 2027 will be set through a separate process: bilateral and multilateral negotiations between the coastal states with competing claims on the stock — the UK, Norway, the EU, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland. Those negotiations are scheduled for November and December 2026.
The distinction matters for anyone following the mackerel market closely. In recent years, the total catch set by those negotiations has exceeded ICES scientific advice by an average of approximately 39 percent over the past 15 years, because each coastal state negotiates a national share based on historical access claims rather than exclusively on scientific recommendations. UK fishing quotas post-Brexit
The 2027 figure is also high relative to recent advice but lower than it appears historically. ICES data shows that the 352,938-tonne recommendation is still considerably below the actual catches recorded between 2020 and 2022. The stock is in early recovery, not historical abundance.
For UK and Scottish fishing operations in particular, the improved advice offers potential quota relief after several years of constrained allocations. The Scottish pelagic sector — centred on Peterhead, Shetland, and the Western Isles — is among the most directly affected. Industry groups welcomed the announcement, while also calling for caution about the pace of stock recovery.
Why the sustainability problem has not gone away
Northeast Atlantic mackerel lost its Marine Stewardship Council certification in 2019. The MSC suspended certification after the stock had fallen below a precautionary threshold while catches remained substantially above scientific advice — and because coastal states continued to set unilateral catch allocations without a binding shared framework.
That disagreement has not been resolved. Until the UK, EU, Norway, Iceland, and the Faroes sign a binding sharing agreement, mackerel sold without MSC or equivalent eco-certification will continue to face challenges in premium markets. sustainable seafood certification UK supermarkets
For fishermen and processors, the doubled 2027 catch advice offers potential quota relief when negotiations conclude, but it will not automatically restore supermarket eco-credentials. Because the UK, EU, and Nordic nations continue to set unilateral allocations that collectively exceed scientific recommendations, mackerel remains without its MSC blue tick. Until coastal states negotiate a binding sharing treaty, processors will struggle to sell catches into premium European retailers demanding independently certified sustainable seafood.
Why mackerel lost its MSC certification
Northeast Atlantic mackerel lost its Marine Stewardship Council certification in 2019 because the stock had fallen below a precautionary threshold and catches remained substantially above scientific advice, with coastal nations unable to agree on a binding shared framework for catch allocations. The combined international catch consistently exceeded scientific recommendations, putting the long-term health of the stock at risk.
The coastal states consultations in November and December 2026 are the next opportunity to change that. The outcome of those talks will determine whether 2027 catches actually approach the ICES ceiling, and whether any progress is made toward a certification-eligible sharing agreement.
