Tejal Somvanshi
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued its spring forecast on August 27, 2026, predicting above-average temperatures across the nation from September through November 2026. The outlook is informed by recent winter records and observed ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino climate driver mechanisms play a key role.
Winter 2026 produced notable temperature anomalies across Australia. In Sydney, the mean winter temperature reached 15.27°C, an anomaly of +2.25°C above the long-term average. On August 26, Yampi Sound in Western Australia recorded a maximum temperature of 41.6°C, the highest winter maximum temperature on record for that location. Western Australia experienced its warmest winter on record at the state level, with widespread departures from normal temperatures occurring across the region. Australian temperature records show a clear warming trend.
The Alpine region of southeastern Australia faced a severe snow deficit during winter. Three Mile Dam, a critical water storage facility in Victoria, held only 5.5 centimeters of snow—a historically low accumulation. This reduced alpine snow cover has implications for water supply into the spring and summer months, with potential effects on agricultural water availability and hydroelectric generation capacity.
The spring outlook attributes much of the expected warmth to strengthening El Nino conditions. AFAC has issued an elevated bushfire risk outlook for the spring season. The Northern Territory is expected to face heightened risk conditions, with parts of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia also under elevated risk assessments. These risk levels are consistent with warmer temperatures, lower soil moisture, and drier vegetation conditions associated with El Nino patterns.
It should be noted that the Bureau of Meteorology’s spring forecast predicts above-average temperatures—not record-breaking heat for the entire spring season. Regional variations will occur, and the actual season will include periods of normal and below-average temperatures. The forecast provides a probabilistic outlook based on climate drivers and historical patterns.
