Rahul Somvanshi
The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño will intensify and last until at least February 2027. For Australians, that raises the odds of a hotter, drier spring in parts of the country, though the Bureau of Meteorology says a strong El Niño does not always mean strong local impacts. Here is what the 8 October update says and what to do before summer.
The WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update, released from Geneva on 8 October, says El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. The WMO forecasts a near-100% likelihood that it lasts through at least February 2027. It expects the warming to peak around December 2026. The Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly, a key measure in the central Pacific, is forecast to average about +3.7°C for October to December. The Bureau of Meteorology's reading for the week ending 27 September was +2.72°C, well above the +0.80°C El Niño threshold. The WMO's outlook shows wetter-than-normal conditions across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Greater Horn of Africa and south-eastern South America, and drier-than-normal conditions over the western Pacific and the Indian subcontinent.
Farmers and water authorities in southern and eastern Australia should plan for a drier-than-normal spring, with the Bureau of Meteorology's outlook favouring below-average rain in parts of the south and east and above-average temperatures across most of the country. Producers should consider drought-tolerant crop rotations and secure feed early. Rural property owners should update bushfire survival plans before summer. City households may face higher cooling demand in hot weather.
El Niño 2027 Forecast: Heat and Fire Risk
The Bureau of Meteorology says a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop in spring and persist into early summer, which can increase the chance of drier conditions in southern and eastern Australia. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is a pattern where the western Indian Ocean runs warmer than the east. The WMO expects it to peak in October and then decline. CSIRO says El Niño raises the odds of a dry spring in parts of northern and south-eastern Australia, but the link to bushfires is not straightforward, and some severe fire seasons have occurred in non-El Niño years. bushfire-preparation coverage
Warmer Seas
The Bureau of Meteorology expects sea surface temperatures across most of the Australian region to warm in the coming months, especially to the west and in the Coral Sea. Warmer seas raise the risk of marine heatwaves. The WMO update does not give a reef-specific forecast. climate-impact coverage
When will the current El Niño peak, and how long will it last? The WMO expects the warming to peak around December 2026 and puts the likelihood that El Niño lasts through at least February 2027 at near 100%. The Bureau of Meteorology expects it to persist into autumn 2027.
Reports of the update say it could become one of the strongest El Niño events since 1950. The WMO says El Niño will last until at least February 2027, peaking around December. Check back for updates.
