Sunita SomvanshiBangladesh faces a deepening power shortage with a deficit of approximately 1,500 MW across the grid. Rural areas are experiencing 8–10 hours of daily power cuts, with Khulna division enduring outages up to 10 hours daily, while Dhaka maintains near-full allocation. On July 26, midday load-shedding reached 1,157–1,216 MW. In response to this mounting crisis, Bangladesh’s Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmud formally requested additional diesel supply from India’s High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi.
Two interconnected shocks triggered the crisis. On July 21, 2026, a fire at the Excelerate Energy FSRU facility damaged electrical cables and destroyed one of two 300 MMcf/d boilers, cutting LNG regasification capacity from 1,000 to 501 MMcf/d. Simultaneously, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on July 23 following regional conflict and Hormuz risks, reducing contracted LNG cargoes to Bangladesh—Qatar supplies approximately 50 percent of Bangladesh’s LNG. Gas supply to the power sector now stands at 706.2 MMcf/d against demand of 2,524.9 MMcf/d, representing just 27.97 percent fulfillment. The underlying vulnerability stems from a 28 percent decline in domestic gas production since FY20, with import dependence rising 143 percent and zero strategic gas storage.
The fertilizer sector exemplifies the crisis cascade. Four of five BCIC urea factories have shut operations as gas supplies were diverted to power generation, saving approximately 150 MMcf/d. Domestic urea production has fallen by roughly 1 million tonnes annually. The Aman rice season, running from August through November and accounting for 70 percent of annual rice output, now faces acute urea scarcity. Limited nitrogen availability threatens agricultural yields precisely when supply is most critical.
Export industries confront severe operational strain. Garment manufacturers—generating 84 percent of Bangladesh’s exports—report that captive gas generators receive only 30–40 percent of normal allocation. Diesel gensets cost three times more than gas-powered alternatives, forcing production delays of 7–10 days and jeopardizing order fulfillment. Shrimp aquaculture, spanning 275,000 hectares and generating $484 million in FY25 exports, faces acute stress. Without power for aerators, dissolved oxygen drops below 3 mg/L within 2–3 hours, causing mass mortality. Approximately 80 percent of farms across Khulna division (Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat districts) are at risk.
The India-Bangladesh diesel pipeline, commissioned in 2023, spans 131.5 km from Numaligarh to Parbatipur under a 1.8 lakh MT annual supply agreement. During the West Asia crisis in March-April 2026, India supplied over 30,000 additional MT. The current request signals transformation of a commercial contract into an energy security corridor. Diesel costs Tk 25–30 per kWh compared to Tk 4–5 for gas-generated power, a sevenfold increase. Bridging this price gap through subsidy or tariff adjustment presents a fiscal challenge amid already-stretched government finances.
Repair timelines remain undefined. Monir Hossain Chowdhury of Petrobangla stated: “It will take some time. We cannot say whether it will take five days, 10 days or any specific timeframe. Even the technical experts working on the repairs are unable to predict when the work will be completed.” The situation is compounded by the fact that Bangladesh operates only two FSRU facilities—Excelerate (600 MMcf/d) and Summit (500 MMcf/d)—creating zero regasification redundancy. Summit experienced an “unexpected shutdown” in mid-August, further reducing capacity.
The structural dependence on imported energy has created conditions where a single technical failure in LNG infrastructure produces cascading impacts across power generation, industrial production, and food security. Import dependency without strategic reserves or terminal redundancy leaves the economy exposed to both infrastructure disruption and geopolitical supply shocks beyond Bangladesh’s control.
