Sonali Tiwary
What the Almanac Predicts for Holiday Travel and Regional Conditions
The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its November and Thanksgiving 2026 weather forecast on October 21, predicting a mixed pattern across the United States. The Northeast and Great Lakes face colder-than-normal temperatures with above-average snowfall. The Southeast expects mild, wet conditions. The West Coast sees near-normal temperatures but increased Pacific storm activity. Thanksgiving week (November 23 to 26) brings a major storm system moving from the Plains to the Northeast, potentially disrupting holiday travel.
The Almanac’s 12-day-old forecast uses a proprietary formula combining solar cycles, historical patterns, and current ocean-atmosphere data. While not a substitute for National Weather Service short-range forecasts, the seasonal outlook has shown 70 to 80 percent directional accuracy in independent verification studies. Travelers should monitor NWS updates starting November 20 for actionable guidance.
Regional Breakdown for November and Thanksgiving Week
Northeast and New England: Temperatures 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Snowfall 150 to 200 percent of average. A nor’easter-type system is indicated for November 24 to 25, bringing heavy wet snow inland and rain along the coast. Major airport delays likely at Boston Logan, New York LaGuardia, and Newark.
Great Lakes and Midwest: Bitter cold with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Lake-effect snow belts downwind of Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Erie could see 2 to 3 feet through November. Thanksgiving week brings a clipper system with 3 to 6 inches across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Southeast: Mild and wet. Temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal. Rainfall 120 to 150 percent of average. Thunderstorm risk remains elevated through mid-November. Thanksgiving Day looks mostly dry but cloudy.
South Central and Texas: Near-normal temperatures. Rainfall slightly above average. A cold front around November 22 could bring the first freeze to North Texas and Oklahoma.
West Coast: Near-normal temperatures. Pacific storm track active with systems every 3 to 5 days. Northern California and the Pacific Northwest see 150 percent of normal rainfall. Mountain snowpack builds early, benefiting water supply outlook.
Rockies and Intermountain West: Cold with above-normal snowfall. Ski areas from Colorado to Utah could open ahead of schedule. Thanksgiving storm favors the central and northern Rockies with 1 to 2 feet at elevation.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac November 2026 forecast indicates a major Thanksgiving week storm system moving from the Plains to the Northeast. Regional outlooks show cold and snowy conditions north, mild and wet south. Monitor National Weather Service updates from November 20 for travel decisions.
Bookmark weather.gov for official forecasts. Check airline and airport status pages starting November 21. The Almanac’s seasonal outlook provides planning context, not real-time guidance.
