Sunita Somvanshi
A widely circulated figure claims the triple lock will cost pension recipients £1,600. That number comes from analysis comparing the pension’s value in the year 2050 under two different formulas—not from a Budget announcement and not from anything happening this week. What Wednesday’s Autumn Budget is expected to confirm is the state pension rate for April 2027, at which point a full new state pension recipient with no other income will, for the first time, owe a small amount of income tax under the existing threshold freeze.
The Autumn Budget is scheduled for Wednesday October 28, 2026, presented by Chancellor John Healey. The Budget is expected to confirm the April 2027 state pension rate. The triple lock formula—highest of earnings growth, CPI inflation, or 2.5%—is unchanged for this Parliament.
The new state pension is projected to rise to approximately £250.71 a week from April 2027, equivalent to roughly £13,037 a year, according to GOV.UK’s state pension uprating analysis. This is a pre-Budget projection, not yet a confirmed rate. The official rate is typically confirmed around Budget day.
The £1,600 figure was produced by Hymans Robertson. It is the projected annual difference in the year 2050 between the state pension under the current triple lock (£35,100) and the pension under the revised “annual double lock” formula, detailed in the triple lock reform factsheet, that Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced at Labour’s conference on September 29 would replace the triple lock from 2030 if Labour wins the next election. It is a 2050 single-year comparison tied to a policy change proposed for 2030—not a cumulative cost, not an immediate cut, and not a Budget measure.
The practical concern for pension recipients at Wednesday’s Budget is the threshold crossing—a consequence of existing policy, not a new announcement. The personal allowance has been frozen at £12,570 since 2021 and was extended until April 2031 at the November 2025 Budget. With the new state pension projected at approximately £13,037 a year from April 2027, a recipient with no other income would exceed the personal allowance for the first time and, per HMRC’s guidance on how state pension is taxed, owe approximately £93 in income tax on the difference—roughly £467 above the allowance at the basic rate of 20%.
What Wednesday is actually expected to confirm
The triple lock itself is not changing at this Budget. Burnham confirmed at Labour’s September conference that the triple lock remains in place for this Parliament and would be put to voters before any change takes effect. For a full breakdown of how the state pension increase is calculated each year, Karmactive’s state pension and triple lock explainer covers the formula and history.
The Budget’s pension-related content is expected to center on the official confirmation of the April 2027 rate. That confirmation will set the income tax calculation definitively: once the rate is confirmed, the taxable amount above the £12,570 allowance will be precise rather than projected, a shift Karmactive has tracked as the 2027 tax allowance crossing point approaches.
The personal allowance freeze is the structural context that makes this April 2027 crossing significant. The allowance would have been approximately £4,920 higher by 2030/31 if it had risen with inflation from 2021, according to OBR modelling. The freeze has gradually pulled more workers and pensioners into the tax net, and April 2027 marks the point at which the new state pension alone, with no other income, crosses the threshold.
The state pension age is currently rising from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028 under the existing timetable. Anyone approaching state pension age and deciding whether to claim or defer should note that GOV.UK’s guidance on deferring state pension notes that any additional payments from deferral may be taxable.
The £1,600 figure circulating this week is a 2050 annual comparison based on PM Burnham’s proposed 2030 reform. For April 2027, the relevant question is the official rate confirmation at Wednesday’s Budget. Check back after October 28 for confirmed figures.
