Sunita Somvanshi
Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors reduce the heavy defensive positioning currently visible in bitcoin exchange-traded fund data — that is the argument from JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, in analysis reported by The Block. It is a conditional market-positioning argument, not a price target or guarantee, and the mechanics behind it are worth understanding before treating it as a forecast.
What the JPMorgan analysis says
The argument rests on a comparison of hedging positions in bitcoin and gold ETFs. According to The Block's reporting on the analysis:
- Gold ETFs have recovered all their earlier-year outflows. Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half.
- Short interest in BlackRock's IBIT) bitcoin ETF remained near its annual high.
- Short interest in GLD, the gold ETF, was below its historical average.
- The put-to-call ratio for bitcoin ETF options was higher than for gold.
Taken together, that picture means bitcoin-related ETF positioning is more defensively structured than gold's. JPMorgan's argument: if investors reduce those hedges — covering shorts, rolling off put positions — the buying pressure that generates could provide more marginal price support to bitcoin than gold would receive from equivalent activity in gold ETFs.
What the analysis does not say
This is where the distinction matters most. JPMorgan is not saying bitcoin will outperform gold. It is not providing a price target. The scenario is conditional on hedging actually decreasing — which requires investors to change their current positioning. That may or may not happen depending on macro conditions, regulation, and sentiment shifts that are outside the scope of the analysis itself.
The actual JPMorgan research note was not publicly available at time of publication. The figures above are from The Block's reporting on the analysis. Treat them as reported, not independently verified from the primary JPMorgan document.
Why ETF hedging matters for crypto prices
For readers less familiar with the analysis: short and options positions in bitcoin ETFs can affect pricing and hedging flows around those products. JPMorgan's argument is that bitcoin currently has more defensive positioning than gold, and that if those positions unwind, the resulting change in flows could provide relatively more support to bitcoin than equivalent activity in gold ETFs. This is a conditional scenario, not a mechanical certainty.
For US investors comparing bitcoin and gold exposure through ETFs, the practical implication is that bitcoin's current positioning profile is more defensive than gold's — which could mean bitcoin has more room to move upward if sentiment shifts, but also that the current positioning reflects more caution about bitcoin's near-term prospects.
Gold ETFs have absorbed significant flows in 2026 against a macro backdrop that favors debasement-hedge trades. Bitcoin has participated in that trend but has not matched gold's recovery in ETF positioning. Whether that gap closes depends on factors beyond what any single analyst note can predict.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does JPMorgan predict bitcoin will beat gold?
No. JPMorgan analysts say bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors reduce the heavier defensive hedging currently in bitcoin ETF positioning. That is a conditional scenario based on a change in market behavior, not a forecast that bitcoin will outperform gold.
What is ETF hedging and why does it matter for bitcoin prices?
When large investors hold short positions or buy put options on a bitcoin ETF, it creates ongoing selling pressure as market-makers offset their exposure. If those hedges are reduced, that pressure eases. JPMorgan's argument is that bitcoin currently has more of this pressure than gold does, meaning more potential relief if positioning normalizes.
What is IBIT?
IBIT is BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, launched after the SEC approved spot bitcoin ETF products in early 2024. It became one of the largest bitcoin ETFs by assets under management. Short interest in IBIT was near its annual high at the time of JPMorgan's analysis, according to The Block.
ETF flow data and institutional positioning shift weekly. The JPMorgan primary research note has not been publicly released. Any update to the underlying positioning data would change the analysis. This is not investment advice.
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