Rahul Somvanshi
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released an update in September 2026 confirming that El Niño—the periodic warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—is firmly established and has a nearly 100-percent likelihood of persisting through February 2027. This is not a forecast of something that might happen. It is a statement about something already happening and how long it will last.
El Niño is expected to strengthen further from its current intensity. The WMO expects it to reach “very strong” intensity, peaking around the end of 2026. For the September-November 2026 period, the WMO forecast shows above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas globally. Regional variations exist—some areas experience heat, others drought, others rainfall—but the baseline expectation is warmer than historical norms.
For South Asian readers, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—an independent climate oscillation—matters significantly. The WMO expects a positive IOD to develop during the same September-November period, with a seasonal mean forecast of 0.9 degrees Celsius above normal. The WMO notes that other climate drivers, including the IOD, can modify El Niño’s typical regional impacts. The WMO explicitly states that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine the magnitude of impacts in any individual region. National meteorological and hydrological services in South Asia are stepping up preparedness and early-warning efforts to account for the combined effects of both climate drivers.
The agricultural consequences are significant in regions typically affected during El Niño years. Drought risk is elevated across Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and parts of Southern Africa. The combination of heat and reduced rainfall stresses crops, water supplies, and livestock.
Conversely, some regions face increased rainfall risk. The west coast of South America and parts of the southern United States are associated with increased heavy precipitation during strong El Niño events. That brings flood and landslide hazards where rainfall is intense.
Marine ecosystems face thermal stress. Ocean heat during El Niño events is associated with elevated coral bleaching risk globally—a process where coral expels algae under heat stress, turning white and eventually dying if conditions do not cool.
The WMO explicitly states that national meteorological and hydrological services are stepping up preparedness and early-warning systems. The forecasting certainty is unusually high, which gives governments and communities more lead time than is typical. A near-certain El Niño persistence through February 2027 is actionable information for water agencies, agricultural planners, and disaster-management systems.
