Sunita Somvanshi
Three parts of the United Kingdom are having different constitutional conversations at the same time. Scotland is publishing a draft bill for an independence referendum. Wales says it’s on a constitutional journey but won’t hold a referendum soon. Northern Ireland has a legal mechanism that could trigger a border poll if conditions change. It sounds like a coordinated push to break up Britain. It’s not quite that simple.
The strongest headline is the real legal question: Can these regions actually hold referendums on independence or unification? The answer is different for each.
Scotland’s situation is the most advanced. The Scottish Government published a draft independence referendum bill in August 2026 proposing a simple question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” But here’s what makes it complicated. A 2022 UK Supreme Court ruling decided that holding such a referendum relates to matters reserved to the Westminster Parliament. That means the Scottish Parliament cannot unilaterally pass a law for an independence referendum without Westminster’s permission.
So Scotland has a bill draft. Scotland doesn’t yet have the legal power to hold the vote it’s proposing.
That’s a crucial distinction. Publishing a bill isn’t the same as holding a referendum. It’s a statement of intent—a political demand—not an accomplished fact.
Northern Ireland follows a completely different path. Under the Good Friday Agreement, a mechanism called a border poll exists. The Secretary of State has a statutory duty to call one where it appears likely that a majority would vote for Northern Ireland to cease being part of the UK and form part of a united Ireland. This isn’t up to the Northern Irish government to initiate alone. The legal test is the Secretary of State’s assessment of likely majority support.
Wales told a different story. In June 2026, the Welsh Senedd (parliament) made clear that there will be no referendum on independence during the current parliamentary term. Wales described itself as being “on a constitutional journey,” but that doesn’t mean a referendum is coming soon. The language matters. Wales isn’t pushing for an immediate vote.
The Cardiff meeting that triggered headlines brought these three governments together. The political message was coordinated: we want more control over our constitutional futures. But the mechanisms they can actually use are different. Scotland needs Westminster permission. Northern Ireland needs demographic and opinion conditions to shift. Wales isn’t currently pursuing a referendum at all.
Historical context clarifies why this situation exists. Devolution gave Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland their own governments and devolved institutions with different powers. The UK Parliament retains sovereignty over reserved constitutional matters. The 2014 Scottish independence referendum happened because Westminster allowed it. The voting result from the 2016 Brexit referendum itself is factual—Scotland voted heavily to stay in the EU while England voted to leave.
Northern Ireland’s situation traces back further—to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended decades of conflict and created the border poll mechanism as a peace accord guarantee.
The Scottish Government’s political position is clear. The party in power, which champions independence, says the May 2026 election produced the largest number of pro-independence MSPs in Scottish parliamentary history. Publishing a referendum bill is a way to maintain momentum and pressure Westminster. But publishing a bill and passing a bill are different. Passing it requires Westminster’s cooperation.
Why does the distinction between political demand and legal power matter? Because saying “Scotland wants a referendum” is accurate. Saying “Scotland is holding a referendum” or “the UK is breaking up” overstates where things actually stand. Political demands can be heard and rejected, negotiated or ignored. Legal powers are enforceable.
The Cardiff meeting represents genuine political movement. Three governments coordinating a message is significant. Regional governments are demanding more control. The legal paths available to them vary considerably. Westminster hasn’t said yes to Scottish independence, Wales isn’t pushing for immediate change, and Northern Ireland’s path depends on future demographic and opinion shifts.
