Karmactive Staff
Campers and residents across northwestern Ontario face a serious weather risk this weekend as Environment Canada tracks multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms with tornado potential. The storms are expected to sweep through popular lake areas and communities from the Minnesota border through Thunder Bay.
Saturday’s storms will begin along the Minnesota border by late afternoon before moving eastward through Thunder Bay by early evening. These initial storms carry the risk of damaging winds up to 90 km/h and hail reaching 2 cm in diameter.
“Local utility outages are likely. Heavy rain may cause flash flooding and significant reductions to visibility. Large hail may cause significant damage and injury,” warns Environment Canada in their latest advisory.
The most serious threat comes Sunday, with an early-morning mesoscale convective system (MCS) arriving between 8 a.m. and 12 p.m. EDT, followed by a second, potentially more dangerous line developing from mid-afternoon through early evening. This second round shows particularly concerning conditions near Fort Frances, where enhanced wind shear creates an environment favorable for tornado formation.
Ontario currently leads Canada with a high frequency of tornadoes, according to Western University’s Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP). As of late July 2025, preliminary NTP data show at least two confirmed tornado touchdowns in the province this year.
This weekend’s threat fits a troubling pattern. The 2022 season set a record with 131 verified tornadoes, while according to NTP preliminary reports, 2024 was Canada’s second-busiest tornado season. The NTP’s open-data dashboard shows a concentration of past events in northwestern Ontario, particularly in the same regions currently under threat.
“A pattern we are seeing is more severe windstorms in Ontario and Quebec,” notes Dr. Greg Kopp of the Northern Tornadoes Project in a Western News article.
The forecast calls for Humidex values near 34°C, creating the hot, humid conditions that fuel severe thunderstorm development. Environment Canada notes these conditions align with climate assessment data showing increased severe weather likelihood during periods of elevated heat and humidity.
For weekend campers and cottagers, the Red Cross recommends:
- Identify a sturdy shelter location before storms arrive (basement or reinforced interior room)
- Keep a battery-powered radio for updates if cell service fails
- Maintain a 72-hour emergency kit with water, non-perishable food, flashlight, and batteries
Drivers should check road conditions before traveling, as Trans-Canada Highway 17 and Highway 11 frequently experience flooding during severe storms. The DriveON traffic advisory system provides real-time updates.
Alert Ready will push life-threatening alerts automatically to compatible LTE devices—no signup required. Ensure your phone has current software and LTE connection. Those with Wi-Fi-only or older devices should download the free Alertable app.
The region has faced similar outbreaks before. The NTP’s open-data dashboard shows past tornado events have occurred in the Rainy River District. NTP analysis has documented extensive damage paths through forested areas and campgrounds.Thunder Bay Emergency Management issues regular forecast updates throughout the day. Environment Canada encourages reporting severe weather by calling 1-800-239-0484 or emailing [email protected]. For broader context on this year’s storm season, check our seasonal forecasts.
