Govind Tekale
The Met Office has issued its assessment on reports that the UK will experience an Indian summer with temperatures potentially reaching 30C in early September. While weather maps from WXCharts suggest temperatures could soar to 30C in eastern England on September 8, with the North West reaching mid-20s, official forecasts paint a different picture.
According to the Met Office’s latest outlook for September 3-12, the UK should expect “changeable and unsettled weather conditions” with “low pressure systems tending to dominate the overall pattern.” This forecast contradicts predictions of sustained warm weather, instead suggesting that much of the UK will experience showers or longer spells of rain.
The Met Office has clarified that while there may be “short-lived spells of drier and more settled weather,” temperatures will “likely be close to average or slightly below overall,” though they “may rise above at times in any drier, sunnier spells.” For the period from September 12-26, their forecast maintains that low pressure patterns will likely continue to bring changeable conditions with rain, though southern areas may begin to see more settled and drier weather.
What exactly is an Indian summer? While not an official meteorological term, the Met Office Meteorological Glossary defines it as “a warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November.” Some definitions specify it must happen after the first autumn frost, making early September too early for a true Indian summer.
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The term has a complicated history, with the Met Office noting on its website that “there is a complicated and unclear history of the exact origins of the phrase and like many other organisations, we choose not to use the expression.” The first recorded use appears in a 1778 letter describing the Mohawk country in North America.
This potential warm spell would follow a summer that is almost certainly the UK’s warmest on record, pending final confirmation. Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle confirmed that summer 2025 has tracked at a mean temperature of 16.13°C, well above the previous record of 15.76°C set in 2018. The summer has seen four heatwaves across parts of the country, alongside health warnings during dangerously hot periods.
For context, the highest temperature ever recorded during a so-called Indian summer in the UK was 29.9C on October 1, 2011, in Gravesend, Kent. November’s record stands at 22.4C, set in Trawsgoed, Ceredigion.
As September begins, the UK has recently experienced a dip from the scorching temperatures of summer, with low pressure systems bringing unsettled conditions and rainfall. A yellow weather warning for rain was issued for parts of the UK, with some coastal areas forecast to receive up to 70 mm of rain, and locally intense downpours possible.
While weather forecasting agencies may disagree on the likelihood of an Indian summer, the Met Office’s official position suggests Britons should prepare for typical autumn conditions rather than counting on extended summer warmth.
