Govind Tekale
A major new report reveals forests worldwide are approaching a dangerous breaking point from which recovery may be impossible. Scientists are calling this the “Humpty Dumpty Effect” – once forest systems collapse, they cannot simply be “put back together again.”
The report, released on World Environment Day (June 5, 2025) by the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO), is the first global assessment of how forests contribute to social and economic stability in times of change.
The findings paint a stark picture. Ongoing deforestation, coupled with climate change, is pushing forests toward tipping points that threaten to transform entire forest ecosystems permanently. Between 1990 and 2020, the world lost approximately 420 million hectares of forest – an area larger than India.
“It’s not just the trees that fall – it’s a whole web of relationships between species, soil, water, and people that unravels,” explains Dr. Craig Allen from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, who chaired the expert panel. “Once disrupted, these relationships can’t simply be ‘replanted‘.”
The researchers emphasize that forest destruction affects everyone, not just nearby communities. Global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased by 60% since 2001. The economic stakes are enormous – half of the global economy (about $44 trillion) depends on nature in some way.
“When we destabilize forests, the impacts can be felt across all regions and economies,” says Dr. Nelson Grima, Coordinator of the Science-Policy Programme at IUFRO. “Forests are everyone’s business – not just those living nearby.”
The report challenges how we think about forest health. It distinguishes between “engineering resilience” – focused on continued timber extraction and commercial value – and “social-ecological resilience,” which promotes diversity, inclusive governance, and adaptability.
A key finding is that powerful economic drivers linked to capital accumulation are behind forest degradation. These include large-scale agricultural expansion for palm oil, soy, and cattle, unsustainable logging, and infrastructure development like roads and dams that open remote forest areas to exploitation.
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“Maintaining the resilience of forest systems is challenging because powerful economic interests lead to their degradation,” notes Dr. Rachel Carmenta from the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. “The multiple values of forests are not well-recognized by many decision makers.”
The scientists call for a major shift in how forests are managed. Rather than viewing forests as isolated systems valued mainly for timber, they urge recognition of forests as complex social-ecological systems deeply connected to human wellbeing.
The report recommends moving from reactive, short-term, siloed decision-making to long-term, proactive approaches that address the root causes of forest destruction. This includes tackling distant, often wealth-related drivers of deforestation and remedying power imbalances by empowering diverse stakeholders, particularly Indigenous Peoples and local communities who have traditionally been forest stewards.
Indigenous communities are often the most impacted by forest degradation and climate change, yet frequently have the least say in forest management decisions. The report advocates for more inclusive governance that recognizes their crucial role.
“We are at a crucial point in time right now,” says Dr. Joice Ferreira of Brazil’s Embrapa research agency. “Once the system is disrupted, it’s really very difficult to put it back together. It will not be the same.”
The message is clear: protect forests now, before they cross irreversible tipping points, or face consequences that will ripple through societies and economies worldwide.
