Tejal Somvanshi
Back problems will drain the Australian economy of an estimated $638 billion in lost productivity over the next ten years, according to new research from Monash University. This massive economic burden goes beyond medical costs, affecting millions of working Australians through early retirement, workplace absences, and reduced efficiency while working.
Researchers project that more than 3.2 million working-age Australians will be living with chronic back issues by 2033. These widespread problems are expected to reduce Australia’s Gross Domestic Product by approximately 4.6 percent over the decade.
“The economic impact beyond healthcare costs is often overlooked,” said Dr. Sean Docking, Health Economist at Monash University’s School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, who led the research. “Early retirement and work absences associated with back problems are costing the Australian economy billions.”
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The study uses the productivity-adjusted life-year (PALY) metric to capture impacts via absenteeism, presenteeism, and early exit from the workforce.
What makes these findings particularly concerning is that back pain primarily affects people during their prime working years. While the condition can strike at any age, the highest number of cases globally occurs among people aged 50-54, when many are at the peak of their careers.
The economic burden of back pain isn’t unique to Australia. Low back pain is the leading cause of disability worldwide, affecting an estimated 619 million people globally. A recent global study projects this number will rise to 843 million by 2050, with the highest increases expected in Asia and Africa.
The Monash research suggests that even a modest 10 percent reduction in the prevalence of long-term back problems could add $41.4 billion to Australia’s GDP over the decade.
Professor Rachelle Buchbinder, a rheumatologist and co-author of the study, points out that current healthcare approaches may be contributing to the problem: “Too many Australians are receiving care contrary to the best available evidence, resulting in little if any benefit and sometimes causing harm.”
Low-value care practices, including routine imaging and opioid prescriptions when not medically indicated, have been associated with longer work absences. This highlights the need for evidence-based approaches that focus on keeping people active and at work.
“Promoting advice to remain active and at work, alongside providing Australians with the tools to self-manage their back pain can boost workforce participation and productivity,” said Dr. Docking. “Tackling this very common health issue can improve the health of society and aid in the Government’s priority to address stagnant productivity.”
High-risk occupations for back pain include nursing, transport, construction, warehousing, and landscaping. Workplace factors like bending, lifting, awkward postures, monotonous work, rapid pace, and low supervisor support all contribute to the risk.As Australia’s population ages, addressing back pain becomes increasingly critical for both public health and economic stability. Prevention strategies, better workplace ergonomics, and evidence-based care approaches could significantly reduce both the personal and economic toll of this widespread condition.
