Sunita Somvanshi
US commercial crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.031 million barrels in the week ended October 23, 2026, according to data released Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute—a draw that sent West Texas Intermediate futures above $100 a barrel for the first time in months and caught most analysts off guard. The consensus forecast had called for an 800,000-barrel build, and a Wall Street Journal survey of traders expected only a 100,000-barrel dip.
The API’s weekly statistical bulletin shows crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma—the physical delivery point for WTI contracts—fell an additional 453,000 barrels. Total US commercial crude stockpiles have now declined nearly 7 million barrels across two consecutive weeks, following a 4.93-million-barrel draw the prior week. WTI December futures were trading above $100 a barrel as of Tuesday’s session. US domestic crude production, according to the most recent EIA weekly baseline (week ended October 9), fell by 410,000 barrels per day to 13.269 million bpd from 13.679 million bpd.
For US drivers and trucking fleets, WTI crude breaking above $100 after nearly 7 million barrels in two consecutive weekly draws creates upward pressure on energy costs, but an unexpected 2.39-million-barrel surge in gasoline inventories provides a short-term cushion at the pump. However, with distillate stocks barely recovering (+380,000 barrels after a 2.6-million-barrel drop), heating oil and diesel buyers face tighter supplies heading into November.
While crude inventories have shrunk for two consecutive weeks, the product-level data tells a different story at the pump: gasoline stockpiles swung from a 2-million-barrel draw the prior week to a 2.39-million-barrel build—defying a WSJ analyst forecast that had predicted a 700,000-barrel gasoline decline. That refinery buffer means retail gasoline prices are unlikely to spike immediately despite triple-digit crude, though diesel and heating oil remain exposed. The energy supply story intersects directly with US domestic oil production trends and the wider winter energy cost outlook. The official EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which will confirm or revise Tuesday’s API figures, is scheduled for release Wednesday morning.
Did US crude oil inventories rise or fall this week?
US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.031 million barrels in the week ended October 23, 2026, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The drop surprised analysts who had forecast an 800,000-barrel increase, marking nearly 7 million barrels in total draws over two weeks.
The Wednesday EIA report is the next hard data point. If it confirms the API’s 2-million-barrel draw, expect WTI to hold above $100 through the week. Gasoline prices at the pump remain stable for now, but the 410,000-bpd domestic production drop is the number energy traders will be watching most closely in Wednesday’s government data.
