Govind Tekale
The political landscape of inner‑city Melbourne faces a tectonic shift not seen since 2010. Greens Leader Adam Bandt, who made history as the first of his party to win a Lower House seat in a general election, now fights for his political life against Labor’s Sarah Witty in a contest that puts the spotlight on Australia’s complex preferential voting system .
With 80 % of votes counted, the numbers tell a stark story. Bandt’s primary vote has fallen 4.4 points to 40.3 %, while Witty has surged 5.8 points to 31.5 %. The Liberals hold steady at 19.1 %. On a two‑candidate preferred count, Witty leads 52.9 % to 47.1 % – a swing of 9.4 % since 2022.
“Over the last few days seats have been called, they’ve been uncalled… We can’t declare a position until every last vote is counted,” Deputy Greens Leader Mehreen Faruqi insists, pointing to roughly 15,000 absentee and declaration ballots yet to be tallied.
The redistribution of Melbourne’s boundaries has played no small part in this political drama. The 2024 changes stripped away Greens‑friendly Brunswick and Fitzroy North while adding Liberal‑leaning South Yarra and Prahran. Over 200,000 Victorian households received notifications they’d moved divisions, highlighting the significant geographic reshuffling that occurred.
For ordinary Melburnians struggling with housing costs – median weekly rent sits at $400 while monthly mortgage repayments average $2,100 – their electoral map changed while their economic pressures intensified.
The contest illuminates Australia’s unique preferential voting system in stark relief. Despite Bandt securing 40.3 % of first preferences (well ahead of Witty’s 31.5 %), preferences from Liberal and One Nation voters appear to be flowing decisively to Labor.The contest illuminates Australia’s unique preferential voting system in stark relief. Despite Bandt securing 40.3 % of first preferences (well ahead of Witty’s 31.5 %), preferences from Liberal and One Nation voters appear to be flowing decisively to Labor.
The Melbourne battle exists within a broader national context. Labor has “romped home” to a thumping majority, projected to hold 87 of 150 House seats. The Liberal vote has collapsed, with even Opposition Leader Peter Dutton losing his Queensland seat of Dickson – a rare double leadership casualty that recalls John Howard’s 2007 loss in Bennelong.
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For the Greens, the potential loss extends beyond Melbourne. Brisbane’s Stephen Bates and Griffith’s Max Chandler‑Mather also face defeat, potentially leaving Elizabeth Watson‑Brown in Ryan as the party’s sole Lower House representative. This Parliamentary decimation comes despite a relatively stable national primary vote of 11.8 % (down just 0.5 %) – highlighting the challenge of translating widespread support into seats under single‑member electorates.
The contrast with Australia’s upper house could not be starker. Under the Senate’s proportional representation system, the Greens appear poised to hold the balance of power (news). This Creates the unusual situation where a party might simultaneously lose significant Lower House representation while gaining crucial legislative leverage.
Sarah Witty, Melbourne’s likely new MP, brings non‑profit sector experience as former Chief Executive of the Nappy Collective. Her community credentials may have helped Labor recapture a seat they previously held before Bandt’s breakthrough in 2010 (The Guardian).
The Greens’ leadership succession looms large should Bandt lose. Senators Sarah Hanson‑Young and Mehreen Faruqi emerge as potential successors, both bringing significant parliamentary experience to a party potentially forced to rebuild its House presence from scratch (Australian Financial Review).
As postal and declaration votes continue to trickle in, the final chapter of this electoral story remains unwritten. Yet the trend lines point to a fundamental reshaping of progressive politics in Australia’s urban centres – a shift with profound implications for the nation’s approach to climate action, housing affordability, and social policy in the years ahead.
What remains certain is that Melbourne – once Australia’s progressive heart – has delivered an electoral result few predicted, reminding us that in Australia’s complex democracy, voters have the final say, and they’ve spoken with a clarity that has sent shockwaves through the political establishment.
As postal and declaration votes continue to trickle in, the final chapter of this electoral story remains unwritten. Yet the trend lines point to a fundamental reshaping of progressive politics in Australia’s urban centres – a shift with profound implications for the nation’s approach to climate action, housing affordability, and social policy in the years ahead.
What remains certain is that Melbourne – once Australia’s progressive heart – has delivered an electoral result few predicted, reminding us that in Australia’s complex democracy, voters have the final say, and they’ve spoken with a clarity that has sent shockwaves through the political establishment.
