Govind Tekale
California can reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, but it faces major hurdles in scaling technologies and cutting through regulatory red tape, according to a new Stanford University study.
The research shows California must more than double its electricity generation capacity to meet growing demand as cars, buildings, and factories switch from fossil fuels to cleaner power sources. The state will need to add about 170 gigawatts of new generation and 54 gigawatts of storage by 2045, compared to today’s 80 gigawatts of capacity.
“One key to success will be building an emission-free power grid using a combination of solar, wind, batteries, and sources of clean, firm power like natural gas with carbon capture and storage or nuclear power,” said Sally Benson, the study’s senior author and Precourt Family Professor at Stanford.
The roadmap splits emission cuts into three technology categories based on readiness. About 52% of reductions can come from commercially available technologies like electric vehicles, renewable electricity, battery storage, and heat pumps. These solutions face deployment barriers rather than technical challenges.
“California can build the infrastructure it needs to meet the 2045 mandate, but the state must implement policies to overcome regulatory and logistical barriers,” said Joshua Neutel, the study’s lead author and PhD student at Stanford.
Similar Post
These barriers include lengthy grid connection queues, local permit restrictions, potential early termination of federal tax credits for EVs and home solar, legal challenges to California’s ban on gas-powered car sales, high financing costs, and supply chain problems.
Another 25% of emission cuts would come from early-stage technologies that exist but need further commercial development. These include zero-emission heavy-duty trucks, industrial heat from electricity and hydrogen, and carbon capture systems.
Heavy-duty vehicles alone account for about 12% of state emissions. Making these trucks emission-free requires improvements in driving range, cargo capacity, charging time, and purchase price to make them practical alternatives.
The final 23% of emission reductions must come from technologies still in research labs. These include ways to decarbonize trains, planes, and ships; developing low-emission refrigerants; and removing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere.
Carbon removal will play a crucial role. The study projects California will need to capture and store about 45-75 million tons of CO2 annually by 2045. Current methods for direct air capture remain expensive and energy-intensive.
“Reaching zero by 2045 is not so much a challenge in cost,” Benson said, “but a challenge in getting the necessary technologies available in time and establishing the social, political, and economic environment to deploy these technologies rapidly and broadly.”
The researchers recommend several policy changes to help meet these goals. These include streamlining permits for new power plants and grid connections, creating incentives to add carbon capture to existing natural gas plants, maintaining the state’s mandate for 100% clean vehicle sales by 2035, and developing plans for limited supplies of renewable fuels where they’re most needed.
A modest amount of natural gas power with carbon capture (about 34 gigawatts of the 170 gigawatts of new capacity) could significantly reduce the number and costs of wind and solar farms needed. This represents about 20% of the new generation capacity required.
The study also found several carbon-cutting measures that save more money than they cost to implement after accounting for government incentives. Electric passenger vehicles, solar and wind power, reduced oil production in California, and using methane fuel made from waste materials could eliminate 44% of the state’s projected emissions.
The 2022 California law requires not just reaching net-zero emissions by 2045 but achieving negative emissions every year after that. This means the state must eventually remove more carbon dioxide from the air than it puts in.The Stanford research creates a clearer picture of what’s needed to meet these ambitious climate goals and highlights both the technical and regulatory challenges ahead for California’s clean energy transition.
