Govind Tekale
Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment paints a stark picture of our future under different warming scenarios. This comprehensive 1,000-page report, involving hundreds of climate experts, maps how rising temperatures will reshape life across the country.
The assessment models three possible futures: a world that warms by 1.5°C, 2°C, or 3°C. Even at the lower end, the changes would be significant. At the higher end, parts of Australia could become nearly uninhabitable.
“Climate science shows that extreme weather is expected to behave differently compared with events of the past,” the assessment states. Future hazards may strike more frequently, with greater intensity, and multiple disasters could hit simultaneously.
Sea levels are projected to rise significantly, increasing exposure risks. By 2050, about 1.5 million Australians face coastal flooding risks, with this number climbing to over 3 million by 2090. Queensland appears especially vulnerable, with 18 of Australia’s 20 most-exposed regions.
The heat threat is equally alarming. Under a 3°C warming scenario, heat-related deaths would increase by 444% in Sydney and 423% in Darwin compared to today. Even at 1.5°C warming, heat deaths would double in some cities.
“The relationship between increased heat and increased mortality is not linear,” the report warns. This means small temperature increases beyond 2°C create dramatically worse health outcomes.
Northern Australia faces particularly extreme conditions. Martin Pritchard from Environs Kimberley points out that Fitzroy Crossing, which already experiences 67 days yearly above 40°C, could see a staggering seven and a half months of such extreme heat by century’s end if warming continues unchecked.
“It’s hard to hear that the places we call home will no longer exist,” said Kirsty Howey from the NT Environment Centre.
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The economic toll is massive. Climate disasters currently cost Australia around $38 billion annually. This could surge to $73 billion yearly by 2060. Property values could drop by $611 billion by 2050, while reduced agricultural and labor productivity could cost $19 billion by 2030, rising to $4.2 trillion by 2100.
Supply chains face major disruptions too. The assessment highlights that “sparse, long transport routes across remote Australia are notably vulnerable.” Modeling shows that the value of blocked freight could double by 2090 compared to 2024.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen emphasized the report’s significance: “This report reminds us that the cost of inaction always outweighs the cost of action. The whole country has a lot at stake; every Australian, regardless of where they live.”
There is some positive news. Globally, disaster-related deaths have dropped by 50% due to better early warning systems, according to Kamal Kishore from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
But Australia has work to do on prevention. Currently, 90% of federal disaster funding goes to recovery rather than preparedness. The Insurance Council of Australia calculates that every dollar invested in resilience measures returns $9.60.
Limiting global temperature increases to 2°C instead of 3°C would save Australia up to $155 billion in GDP. The report makes clear that our choices today will determine which future Australia faces.
The federal government has released a National Adaptation Plan alongside the risk assessment and will soon announce its 2035 emissions reduction targets. Whether these measures will be enough to avoid the worst outcomes remains to be seen.
