Karmactive Staff
A weak weather system moving into the Gulf this week has meteorologists watching, but not too closely. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives it just a 10% chance of becoming anything tropical, though its effects will still be felt along the coast.
“Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent,” states the NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook from Wednesday morning, July 23. The disturbance is currently tracking as a trough that’s sliding west-southwest toward the north-central Gulf.
While development remains unlikely, Gulf Coast residents should prepare for a wet weekend. NWS Houston/Galveston noted early Wednesday, “Expect rain and thunderstorm chances to increase late Thursday into Friday as a disturbance approaches from the east.”
The forecast calls for 2-3 inches of rainfall generally, with some spots possibly seeing higher amounts. This comes as the system pushes moisture-laden air across the region Thursday through Saturday.
Beach plans? You might want alternatives. Moderate rip current risks are expected along the Florida Panhandle from Destin to Port St. Joe, as well as along the Atlantic coast from Daytona Beach to West Palm Beach. Remember the safety basics if you do venture into the water: swim near lifeguards, understand the flag warning system, and if caught in a rip current, float rather than fight it.
Several factors are keeping this system from strengthening significantly. Wind shear is expected through Friday, which typically disrupts tropical formation. This despite Gulf water temperatures running about 1°C above the 30-year average – warmth that would otherwise favor development.
Local impacts vary by region. Parts of Southeast Texas fall under a Day-3 Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall according to NWS forecasts. Meanwhile, the Lake Charles office warns of “scattered to widespread showers…capable of producing torrential downpours that may lead to flooding in localized spots.”
For weather tracking enthusiasts, there’s an interesting model disagreement. The European model (ECMWF) ensemble members show development chances between 40-60%, while the American model (GFS) shows nearly zero chance – reflecting the uncertainty inherent in forecasting weak systems. The NHC will continue monitoring the system, but for now, Gulf Coast residents should prepare for a rainy end to the week with potential localized flooding and dangerous beach conditions, even without tropical development.
