Karmactive Staff
Climate change has made intense rainfall events 15-20% more likely, according to new research from the University of Edinburgh. The study examined weather patterns similar to those that contributed to the fatal 2020 Carmont train derailment in Scotland.
Scientists warn that if global temperatures rise above 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of these destructive downpours could jump to 30-40%. This increasing risk poses serious threats to infrastructure and public safety.
“Scotland would be wise to prepare for heavier summer deluges as the climate continues to warm,” said Professor Simon Tett from the University of Edinburgh.
The research team, composed of climate scientists from the University’s School of GeoSciences, School of Physics and Astronomy, and the Met Office, analyzed data from weather radars and climate models. They reconstructed the rainfall events that preceded the Carmont derailment, discovering two separate intense downpours on the morning of the accident.
The first was a massive four-hour deluge near the crash site, followed by another severe downpour just one hour before the derailment on the Aberdeen to Glasgow line. This train crash killed three people and injured six others.
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The cause of the derailment was identified as gravel washed onto the tracks by heavy rain. An improperly built drainage system failed to handle the volume of water. The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) highlighted construction errors in the drainage system, and Network Rail was later fined £6.7 million for safety failures.
The science behind this increased rainfall is straightforward: a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture – approximately 7% more for each degree Celsius of warming. When all this water falls at once, it creates more intense rainstorms than were typical in the past.
The Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are currently 1-1.5°C warmer than in the late nineteenth century, explains the research published in the journal Environmental Research Climate.
This finding raises serious concerns about infrastructure designed using historical rainfall patterns. Many drainage systems, embankments, and cuttings were designed using historical “100‑year storm” assumptions, which may no longer be valid in today’s changing climate.
The problem extends beyond the UK. Global precipitation patterns have been shifting since the mid‑20th century, with extreme rainfall increasing in many regions and decreasing in some others, according to IPCC assessments. This variability makes planning difficult for authorities responsible for public safety.
Urban areas face particular challenges from these changing rainfall patterns. Flash floods can overwhelm city drainage systems, causing widespread damage and disruption. Experts recommend updated intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves that account for these new rainfall realities, along with improved early warning systems.
The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall also raises landslide risks, especially in areas with unstable slopes. This creates compound hazards where heavy rain meets vulnerable infrastructure – exactly the combination that led to the Carmont tragedy.
The study was funded by the University of Edinburgh and the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, supported by the UK Department of Science, Innovation and Technology.
As climate change continues, authorities face mounting pressure to reassess infrastructure safety standards and emergency response procedures to protect the public from these increasingly common extreme weather events.
