Govind Tekale
The UK will likely experience a hotter-than-normal summer this year, according to the Met Office. Their three-month outlook shows the country is more than twice as likely to have higher temperatures between June and August 2025.
This prediction follows what has been the warmest and sunniest spring on record. The UK just experienced an unprecedented season with temperatures averaging 9.5°C – a full 1.4°C above normal levels. The country also basked in 653.3 hours of sunshine, which is 43% higher than usual.
“The UK’s climate continues to change,” said Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle. “This spring shows some of the changes we’re seeing in our weather patterns, with more extreme conditions, including prolonged dry, sunny weather, becoming more frequent.”
The spring wasn’t just warm and sunny – it was also remarkably dry. Rainfall measured just 128.2mm, about 40% below average, making it the sixth driest spring since records began in 1836 and the driest in over 50 years. England was hit particularly hard, experiencing its driest spring in more than a century.
The Met Office is clear that a hot summer doesn’t necessarily mean non-stop heatwaves. Rather, there’s a higher chance that heatwave conditions might happen at various points throughout the season. Normal UK summer temperatures typically range from 10-17°C, with southeastern England usually experiencing the higher end at 16-17°C.
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Scientists attribute this warming trend largely to human-caused climate change. The ongoing marine heatwave in waters around the UK may also boost temperatures further. This added warmth and moisture could potentially fuel more intense summer storms when rain does occur.
This pattern isn’t entirely surprising. The UK hasn’t experienced what would be classified as a “cool” summer since 2015, showing a clear trend toward warmer conditions. Eight of the ten warmest UK springs have happened since 2000, with the three warmest all occurring since 2017.
The forecast comes amid growing concerns about water resources. Drought was recently declared across northwest England, with reservoir levels at historic lows for this time of year. Many water companies will hope for sufficient rainfall to avoid imposing water usage restrictions later in the summer.
Health officials typically advise staying hydrated, keeping living spaces cool, and checking on vulnerable people during hot weather. The NHS recommends staying indoors during the hottest part of the day (11am to 3pm) and using fans when temperatures remain below 35°C.
The Met Office’s seasonal forecast also looked at rainfall and wind strength predictions for the summer, but these show less clear signals. Most forecasts point to near-average rainfall for the UK as a whole, with no strong indications about wind patterns.
While this summer is expected to be hotter than normal, the Met Office stresses that we’ll still see day-to-day and week-to-week variations in our weather. The increased chance of heat doesn’t guarantee continuous hot weather, but rather suggests a higher risk of reaching heatwave thresholds at certain times during the summer months.
