India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is expected to be below normal, with private weather agency Skymet Weather projecting total seasonal rainfall at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%, for the June–September period. The expected range is 90–95% of LPA, placing it in the “below normal” category. In practical terms, this means approximately 817 mm of rain against the standard benchmark of 868.6 mm — a shortfall of about 52 mm.
The forecast was released by Skymet on 7 April 2026. The agency had flagged this concern as early as January 2026, maintaining the same projection. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its own first-stage official forecast later this month. IMD’s early indicators also confirm ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail in the Pacific, with El Niño development expected to begin after June. The LPA benchmark of 868.6 mm is based on the 1971–2020 period and is the current standard used by both agencies. For context on how 2025’s monsoon arrived 8 days early, see our earlier coverage.
Skymet’s probability assessment for the full June–September 2026 season
Source: Skymet Weather 2026 forecast. The probability of above-normal rainfall (105–110% LPA) is 10%. The probability of excess rainfall (above 110%) is 0%.
After roughly eighteen months of La Niña — which brought above-average rainfall across much of India in 2024 and 2025 — the Pacific Ocean has returned to ENSO-neutral status. El Niño is now expected to develop during the early phase of the 2026 monsoon and intensify through the second half of the season. The concern this year is the pace: according to Skymet, ocean-atmosphere coupling in the equatorial Pacific is already stronger than usual, meaning El Niño could reach its peak intensity precisely during August and September — the most critical months for Kharif crop development.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean — is currently projected to be neutral to mildly positive. A positive IOD can partially cushion monsoon circulation against El Niño’s drying influence. However, Skymet notes this mild positive phase is unlikely to be strong enough to prevent a late-season deficit. The IOD may contribute to a decent start in June, but the second half of the season remains at risk.
Rainfall distribution in 2026 is expected to be highly uneven. The core monsoon rainfed zones of northwest and central India carry the highest deficit risk, particularly in August–September.
Source: Skymet Weather 2026 Forecast. The southern peninsula is expected to receive largely normal rainfall. Spatial distribution across all regions carries a risk of being varied and uneven.
Pre-monsoon reservoir levels matter because they are the buffer if the rains disappoint. Low storage in the Northern region means these states are almost entirely dependent on timely rainfall this season.
Source: PIB / Central Water Commission (PRID: 1486236) & Central Electricity Authority Hydro Reservoir Report. The CWWG report from the Ministry of Agriculture also noted that cumulative rainfall from January–mid February 2026 was 52% below LPA, meaning soil moisture starts the season already at a deficit in many central blocks.
Sources: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare — Rainfed Agriculture Division (51% net sown area, 40% food production) & NITI Aayog (approximately 45% of working population in agriculture and allied activities). See also: KarmActive’s coverage of extreme weather and global farming stress.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed in early April 2026 that while ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail, sub-surface warming in the Pacific is already detectable. IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has stated the department will release its first-stage official forecast this month. IMD’s Extended Range Forecast from late March 2026 confirmed that the transition to ENSO-neutral was most likely in the March–April window, with El Niño expected to follow.
On weather dissemination, the government has activated IMD’s use of Bhashini — an AI-based platform — to share weather information in regional languages, reducing the linguistic barrier for farmers. Separately, Mithuna-FS is NCMRWF’s new-generation coupled global forecasting system operating at 12-km resolution with a 4-km regional model. Both are part of the government’s Mission Mausam initiative, implemented by IMD, NCMRWF, and IITM. The Ministry of Earth Sciences’ Mission Mausam aims to boost weather forecast accuracy and coverage across India.
The Ministry of Agriculture’s CWWG weekly report from February 2026 recorded cumulative rainfall at 52% below LPA from January through mid-February — meaning the ground goes into monsoon season already moisture-depleted in many central farming blocks. Separately, fertilizer market volatility from earlier West Asian supply chain disruptions remains a monitoring concern for the June sowing window. These dynamics connect to the global trend of water stress accelerating under shifting climate conditions.
- 🌱 Sow early in June. With June forecast at 101% LPA, the season’s most reliable rainfall window is at the start. Completing sowing before the monsoon weakens in July reduces crop exposure to the projected late-season deficit.
- 🌾 Shift to short-duration crop varieties in Northwest India. ICAR advisories recommend short-duration pulses and oilseeds in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan that can mature before September’s projected dry spell. Late-sown paddy varieties face water stress and potential heat stress during grain filling in September.
- 💧 Prioritise in-situ water conservation. Mulching and community-level rainwater harvesting are advised, particularly in areas where Northern reservoirs are at only 23% capacity. Stored water cannot compensate for a weak August–September in regions that depend almost entirely on rainfall.
- 📱 IMD is using Bhashini to deliver weather information in regional languages. Farmers can access district-level advisories via the Meghdoot and Mausam apps, integrated with state government platforms across India.
Sources: ICAR agromet advisories & PIB PRID 2241701 (IMD weather dissemination)
The 2026 monsoon was summarised around a projected seasonal rainfall of 94% of the Long Period Average — a below-normal outcome, with a 40% probability of landing in that range and a 30% probability of drought-level conditions below 90% LPA. The reports detailed a transition from La Niña through ENSO-neutral to a developing El Niño, with Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling identified as the primary driver of the late-season deficit risk.
The monthly outlook documented a pattern starting with a near-normal June at 101% of LPA — supported by the current MJO pulse and a mildly positive IOD — followed by declining rainfall through July (95%), August (92%), and September (89%). August and September carry the highest probability of below-normal conditions: approximately 60% and 70% respectively, per Skymet’s probability distribution.
The regional breakdown identified northwest and central India — particularly Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh — as the zones carrying the highest deficit risk, while eastern and northeastern states are expected to fare comparatively better. Reservoir data from the Central Water Commission showed the Northern region at 23% capacity against a 10-year average of 30%. Cumulative pre-monsoon rainfall from the CWWG report was recorded 52% below LPA through mid-February, indicating depleted soil moisture across central farming blocks. These conditions and their connection to wider climate variability are documented in KarmActive’s coverage on the UN’s climate crisis warnings and the broader impacts of climate-driven heat stress.
